Sue Waters

Kids swimming lessons meant it was time for me to catch up on reading another computer magazine. This time I choose APC magazine (Australia’s IT and Internet news magazine). A good magazine but Smartphones and Pocket PC magazine really rocks! Put my girlfriend, Harriet, onto Smartphones and Pocket PC magazine and she was very impressed; enjoyed reading it, was able to understand all the articles and said “made me look like a geek (when I am not)”. Thanks Frances for guiding us to read computer magazines; we really did think that we would not be able to understand the articles they write.

Back to APC magazine – this month’s issue (May, 2007) article that grabbed my attention was “Internet on the brink of collapse”. Mmmm had heard whispers of this; so I thought that if it is written in a magazine it is something I should really investigate because perhaps it could happen. Obviously if it happens, my husband would be happy it cured my Internet addiction, although he did take a big gamble writing this post.

So much of our modern society is now based on use of the Internet (e.g. banking, shopping, communication) that major disruption to service would have a considerable impact on our lifestyle. Remember those days when you actually had to go to the bank and take out money from over the counter so you had enough money to last the weekend because the bank was closed (well if you are a lot younger than me – probably not!).

So I did some research on the facts about the Internet is on the brink of collapse:

1. Predicting the Internet is going to collapse is not new – There was a prediction of Internet’s catastrophic collapse in 1996. BBC news in 2002 stated Risk to Internet collapse rising due to natural disaster or terrorist attack. Intel in 2004 predicted the Internet was on the brink of collapse because of a tenfold increase in usage in the last decade means the Web is struggling to cope.
2. APC magazine article is based on Deloitte & Touche’s Technology Predictions for 2007 which was written Dec 29, 2006. Deloitte & Touche’s predictions are based on: the number of Internet users continuing to grow; the exponential increase in transmission of video delivered over the Internet; and the terabit-cable pipes connecting continents will reach capacity and ISPs will not be prepared to pay for extra bandwidth because consumers will be unwilling to pay increased costs.
3. During the Internet stock boom (late 1990-early 2000) there was a massive over investment in fiber optic companies which resulted in massive quantities of cables on land and in the ocean.
4. According to Juniper Networks, YouTube already generates traffic equal to the entire internet-load in 2000.

MMmmm after doing considerable research…..my brain is worn out. APC magazine suggests that their research indicates “there is a need to increase existing connections or invest in more efficient transmission technology because like real traffic, internet traffic expands to fill the spaces available. More roads get clogged with more cars.” Whereas Computerworld says Video won’t crash the Internet as there is enough fibre in the ground to cope.

I suppose like any prediction we will just have to wait and see!