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We constantly stress accuracy in prediction with our students. In math, for example, students are taught to estimate – or predict – hopefully preparing them for times in their lives that they will need to perform similar tasks.

To continue, there are times when faulty predictions give rise to unacceptable consequences. Returning to math, if the mathematicians and engineers hadn’t been able to successfully predict the varying scenarios that were involved in sending a man to the moon, do you really think we would have been able to successfully make the trip? And what would have happened if many of their predictions had been inaccurate? At times it is critical that predictions are accurate – because lives are at stake – and to say that such inaccurate predictions are healthy (because they enable conversation) is simply absurd.

Thus, you’ll never see me subscribe to the statement “It is not about being right or wrong; but about having the conversations”.

Hi Jo – I think for most of us Number 1 continues to be way too close to home. I know that within my section I tend to just get on with it and not talk much about what I am doing; but in the long run is this the best approach? Certainly causes less heartache.

Paul – I felt fairly safe in writing my challenges because they seem to be common themes that echo through people’s posts & twitter. Shame it has to be this way. Definitely enjoying the ride — and my networking with others like yourself makes the times I feel the need to talk less about what I do with others worthwhile. While I may not always achieve the successes I would like within my organisation it is nice to know I have inspired individuals in other parts of the World to give it a go.

Hi wvskphillips – thanks for sharing your conversation that you had with your husband. While mine is not a teacher I could totally relate to it because he often looks at me as if I am from another planet. However it must be frustrating in your situation – sorry I can’t offer any solutions except to hopefully get him to slowly start engaging in using the technology himself as it does takes time to see there is a different way.

Darren – I am sure that you spent your entire night class yesterday pondering exactly this question “Does it really matter if a prediction is right or wrong”. Well here is where your blog post comes into play. If the individual blogs, this means we can debate our thoughts on the predictions — while the original prediction may not be worthy — working together as a team, provided we agree with the Wisdom of the Crowd concept — means that ultimately we will achieve, hopefully, more accurate predictions. Unless off course we all reinforce a bad prediction. PS if we were only interested in money we wouldn’t do most the things we do And if the individual doesn’t blog? Will the conversation happen? I think you should write the follow up post!

I’ve been thinking about your post now for a few days now. Mostly about this:

“Does it matter if predictions are right or wrong?”

My answer, mingled with a few questions of my own:

Yes, of course. And no.

No, it doesn’t matter if you’re only concerned with “the journey”. Admittedly, the conversation can be engaging. Nevertheless, at times the “journey” simply doesn’t pay the bills. Other than an item of conversation, what good is an inaccurate prediction? Is it truly useful and if so, then how useful?

Surely not any more useful than an accurate prediction.

To conclude, I predict that we will think more about this, that you will write a future post referencing this idea, and that we will all learn together – not because of my accurate prediction, but in spite of it.

I told him that we just need to move away from traditional assessment and towards more authentic assessment of what kids can apply, create, and utilize rather than regurgitate back to us. He looked at me like I had lost my mind.